NEW YORK – Predicting the future has always been a challenge, especially for Dominicans in baseball.
This includes the effort to identify players who, after a strong start to the season,
will maintain their high level of performance until they approach free agency.
This could open the door to lucrative contracts in Major League Baseball (MLB).
After Dominicans Juan Soto, who signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.,
who secured a 14-year, $500 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, positioned themselves as two of the three highest-paid players in baseball history,
along with Japanese player Shohei Ohtani, who signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the big question arises:
Who are the Latino players best positioned to land the next multi-million dollar contracts?
Defining Mega Contracts
To establish a frame of reference, let’s consider a “mega contract” to be an agreement of at least 10 years and $300 million.
It’s important to exclude players who, due to their age or existing contractual commitments, are no longer viable candidates for signing such extensive deals.
Currently, there are six active Latino players on track to be considered for the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.
These are Venezuelans José Altuve of the Houston Astros and Salvador Pérez of the Kansas City Royals;
Dominicans Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres and José Ramírez of the Cleveland Guardians;
Puerto Rican Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets and Cuban Aroldis Chapman of the Boston Red Sox.
However, none of them seem likely to be in the running for a mega contract in the near future.
The Kansas City Royals have an option on Pérez for 2026, who is already 35 years old.
Meanwhile, Boston has extended its option on Chapman, who is 37, at least until 2027. Machado, Altuve, Lindor, and Ramírez are firmly committed to their teams until they are 40, 39, 37, and 35 years old, respectively.
Young Stars Seeking Contracts
Among the young prospects, Dominicans Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres and Rafael Devers of the San Francisco Giants stand out.
They have contracts worth $340 million and $313 million, which will end when they are 35 and 36 years old, respectively.
For his part, Venezuelan outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr.
signed an 8-year, $100 million contract, plus two club options.
He will leave the Atlanta Braves’ tuition at a relatively young age (31), although his injury history could influence the length of his next contract.
Dominicans Framber Valdez and Venezuelans Ranger Suárez, Gleyber Torres, and Eugenio Suárez are shaping up to be the top Latino players in the upcoming offseason.
The Milwaukee Brewers must exercise an $8 million option on the current contract of Dominican right-hander Freddy Peralta.
This would postpone his entry into free agency until 2027, along with Dominican shortstop Jeremy Peña and Venezuelan catcher William Contreras.
While all these players are in the running for significant salaries, they are not necessarily expected to sign decade-long or $300 million-plus deals.
The Promising Future of Dominicans
Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio, at just 21 years old, possesses the talent to be considered in any long-term projection, even though he’s tied to a decade-long contract similar to Acuña’s.
The Brewers signed Chourio to an eight-year, $82 million deal with two option clauses that allow them to retain control of the player until 2033.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz, from the Dominican Republic, presents an intriguing case.
Despite having all the tools to top this list, the reality is that, almost five years after his debut,
he has yet to achieve the standout season that was expected since his minor league days.
Cruz will need to maximize his potential in the coming seasons to position himself as a candidate for a mega-contract.
This brings us to three Dominicans with real potential, should they wait until free agency.
Aspiring to contracts exceeding 10 years and/or $300 million: Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez.
Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz and Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero.
Contracts and Future Projections
Before the start of the 2022 season, Rodríguez and Seattle reached a complex agreement guaranteeing the player $120 million through 2029.
This contract could potentially reach a total of $470 million, one of the largest in history, although it is subject to various clauses that leave multiple options open.
After 2028, The Mariners can opt for an eight- or ten-year extension, depending on the player’s performance in previous seasons.
However, if the team decides not to exercise this option, Rodríguez will have the ability to activate a five-year, $90 million player option or become a free agent at the most opportune moment in his career.
At just 23 years old, De la Cruz has already been part of two All-Star Games and has accumulated 138 stolen bases and 59 home runs.
Due to his exceptional athleticism, talent, and power, De la Cruz is projected to reach the 30-30 milestone and could threaten 40-40 a couple of times before becoming eligible for free agency in the winter of 2029, when he will be 27 years old.
In his first full season in the Major Leagues, Caminero stood out as one of the most productive players aged 21 or younger in history.
With impressive numbers: 44 home runs, 28 doubles, 109 RBIs, and 91 runs scored.
The Dominican was selected as the starting third baseman in the American League lineup and finished second in the Home Run Derby.
Caminero, who will turn 22 years and 85 days old when the regular season ends on Sunday.
He has accumulated 201 hits, 51 home runs, 38 doubles, 134 RBIs, and 110 runs scored in his first 200 games with the Rays.
It is very likely that both De la Cruz and Caminero will receive long-term contract extensions, which would prevent them from reaching free agency within the established timeframes.
However, this does not mean they cannot sign multi-million dollar contracts, even if they are subject to various clauses and options, as is the case with Rodríguez.
Fun Facts
Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are now part of an elite in MLB, being two of the three highest-paid players in history.
The largest contract in baseball history belongs to Juan Soto, worth $765 million for 15 years.
Elly De La Cruz has demonstrated exceptional performance since arriving in the Major Leagues, and is considered a future candidate for a mega-contract.
Junior Caminero has had an immediate impact in his first full year, standing out among the best young players in the league.
Contracts in MLB depend not only on performance but also on the health and long-term potential of the players.
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